Saturday, June 6, 2015

Freegold: How will we get there

In this article I am trying to see how the present will move towards Freegold. This will be modified as I get comments from other more knowledgeable people.

Currently we see that the Bond bubble is breaking down. But the problem at present is that there is a liquidity crunch as US is not printing. Also the panic is not widespread so there is no urgent need to get out of Bonds. It is very slowly deleveraging. The slow deleveraging is causing the Dollar to rise.

I think that the following steps would happen before and during the coming crisis. Note these will not be clean phases. A lot of overlap will be happening. As different people will be doing different things.

1) Eventually the panic should spread causing the bond market to implode. At that point a lot of money from Bonds will move into Dollars. Due to this movement dollar will rise very fast. People will probably sell other currencies to make money by moving into Dollar. The reduction of other currencies will only be with respect to the Dollar. It could happen that paper gold crashes during this phase, but I am not so sure.

2) Eventually people will start moving out of the Dollar. This will happen differently in the US and other currency zones. In US people will be buying stuff, causing inflation to rise in the US. While non-americans will be selling Dollars to buy other currencies. Non currencies like XAU, Bitcoins will also be bought, causing these to rise pretty fast. This will be the phase that will trigger hyperinflation in USD. I am not sure how it will play out with Pound and Yen. I don't think they will crash during this phase. Gold will definitely go into hiding in this phase.

3) Once USD is crashing towards hyperinflation, people will get worried about their currencies and they will want to get into something real at this point most currencies will start to fall and prices will rise. This is the phase when XAU will crash, as gold will not be available and the two will get out of sync.

4) Gold revaluation happens on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Several Central Banks will sell gold to reduce the liquidity in the market caused due to people getting out of their own currencies. Britain and Japan will not have enough gold to reduce enough liquidity, and also they have already printed a lot of their currencies which will cause a massive devaluation. This is the phase that is firmly in the Freegold Economic Order.